In Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s bestseller “The Black Swan”, he discusses the inherent flaws of prediction while asking the reader to focus on the under valued likeliness of randomness and uncertainty. The title itself derives from actual black swans that, until seen by Western eyes when Australia was discovered, were unknown to exist.

Until this point, it would have been perfectly reasonable to say that all swans are white. But when the first black swan was introduced into the mix, all bets were off and each of the notion that all swans are white would have become obsolete.

Throughout history, there have been major instances that could fall into the black swan category. Events like Black Monday, the fall of the Soviet Union, the monumental rise of the Internet, and 9/11 are all black swans in their own right. Human hindsight and historical reconstruction are responsible for coming up with the explanations of why these events took place after the fact. (continued on pg. O7…)

There is and should always be little reason to doubt that abuse of any kind is a bad thing. Whether it’s physical, sexual or substance abuse, it should be avoided at all costs. I am thankful that my life has been relatively free from all of the above. But this entry is about something that I was recently made part of. Something that made me think about scale, of social standings and the general disorder of things. Here is my story. (continued on pg. O6…)

I wasn’t planning on writing a follow-up to my last surprisingly popular post (The World Can Be Turned Off with the Flick of a Switch (But Nobody is that Stupid)) but considering the recent news coming out of North Korea, I felt it somewhat relevant to keep the discussion going. If you haven’t heard yet, North Korea has gone through with their first nuclear weapons test. The Korean Central News Agency reported the following:

The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation. It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation. The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability. It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.

It appears that the fears of much of world have finally been realized. Is the threat of nuclear Armageddon closer today than it was yesterday? Standing by what I wrote in my last post, I would say we’re just about as endangered today as we were yesterday. How can I say this? North Korea has been thought of as the bigger threat, when compared to Iraq/Iran, by most of the western world. But I remain firm in my stance nonetheless.

(continued on pg. O5…)